Source: Yahoo Finance - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US/chart/
Ever since it hit the $700 per share earlier this year, Apple, Inc. has seen some sharp fall in its share price. As the US market closed on Friday, 7 Dec 2012, its share price is quoted as $533.25. That is a massive 24% decline in the market capitalization or $157 billion equivalent, and it was within 3 months. Taking a more distant perspective, say 5 year horizon, it could still be deemed as a hiccup considering its share price has tripled over the period. But it is interesting and worthwhile to try to understand the reasons behind the scene.
Apple, as a corporate, in fact has very good fundamentals, from every single perspective. It has huge stack of cash in hand. The sales of iPhone, iPad and Mac remain strong. And more importantly, the profit margins of those products are far higher than its competitors. However, analyses and statistics show that the competition is getting more intensive. The market share of Android phones is steadily growing and the largest Android phone manufacturer, Samsung, has gained some favour in investors' interest. That's why the market is worried about whether Apple's growth is sustainable. As many have believed, History always repeats itself. Today's Apple is just like late 90's Microsoft and Sony, glorious, powerful and invincible. However, the latter two are now struggling to regain customers' attention as before. So this pessimism about Apple's future started even before its growth gets stagnant.
After Steve Job's departure, there once was some scepticism floating around about whether Tim Cook is able to take the wheel. And for the past one year, Cook has proved his capability to the world. Apple isn't of less popularity without Jobs. However, the company has been seen quite a clear distinction in the post-Jobs era. In Cook's hand, the strategic moves are placed in order to retain the leading position or tap new market segment. Such moves include the seemingly endless patent lawsuit against Samsung and other players, withdraw of pre-installed Youtube app and release of a premature Maps app as a replacement of Google Maps service. On the other side, innovation is not thought to be as fast as before. iPhone 5 does not include much breakthrough technology and iPad mini is deemed as just a change of form factor (though personally I think it's very great and important as well). As such, the slower pace in innovation makes the market investors have less faith in the long term return.
The last reason is not much related to the firm itself but the policy environment. The fiscal cliff is apparently coming as President Obama won his second term in the states' general election. In particular, the tax increases will drive some investors away to sell their stocks before 2013 so as to secure their capital gain. Just the day after Obama won the election, Apple's share price slashed 4.55% and the entire US stock market was experiencing pretty much the same down trend. However, if Apple has a long term prospect, investors will still put their money in, despite the tax hike.
It is apparent to see that Apple is dominant in the current market, but many would now realize that after all Apple is just like many other firms, the growth isn't going for ever. From a long-term perspective, innovation is the ultimate key to drive the business further.
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